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Darwin Head, a 35- year old sawmill worker, won $1

Darwin Head, a 35- year old sawmill worker, won $1 million and aChevrolet Malibu Hybrid by scoring 15 goals within 24 seconds atthe Vancouver Canucks National Hockey League game (B. Ziemer,Darwin Evolves into an Instant Millionaire, Vancouver Sun,February 28, 2009, p.1) Head said he would use the money to pay offhis mortgage and provide for his children, and he had no plans toquit his job. The contest was part of the Chevrolet Malibu MillionDollar Shootout, sponsored by General Motors Canadian Division. DidGM-Canada risk the $1 million? No! GM-Canada purchased eventinsurance from a company specializing in promotions at sportingevents such as a half-court basketball shot or a hole-in-onegiveaway at the local charity golf outing. The event insurancecompany estimates the probability of a constant winning thecontest, and for a modest charge, insures the event. The promoterspay the insurance premium but take on no added risk as theinsurance company will make the large payout in the unlikely eventthat a contestant wins. To see how it works, suppose that theinsurance company estimates that the probability a contestant wouldwin a Million Dollar Shootout is 0.001, and that the insurancecompany charges $4,000. Darwin Head won at the Vancouver CanucksNational Hockey League game

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